The late match of round 18 of La Liga between Valencia and Mallorca will take place at 21:00 CET on December 19, 2025, at Mestalla Stadium. With home advantage and the motivation to escape the red light group, Rubén Baraja’s Valencia is rated better, promising to bring back three important points against Mallorca – the team is playing pragmatically, but the away field is weak, and the attack lacks goals.
Personal performance before the Valencia vs Mallorca match
Valencia is ranked 18th in La Liga with 14 points after 17 rounds, winning 3, drawing five, and losing 9, scoring an average of 0.94 goals/match but conceding 1.65 goals. They are unbeaten in their last three home matches (won 1, drew 2), most recently holding Real Sociedad 0-0 despite being pressured throughout the second half.
A series of 2 matches without a loss in all competitions brings some confidence, but the attack is still sluggish, scoring only 16 goals since the beginning of the season. Hugo Duro leads with five goals, supporting Diego López (4 assists), who is the only bright spot on the right wing.
In contrast, Mallorca ranked 11th with 23 points from 6 wins, five draws, and six losses, scoring an average of 1.06 goals/match. They won 2/3 of their last matches (2-1 against Girona and 1-0 against Las Palmas), but away from home, they only won 2/8 matches, conceding an average of 1.5 goals.
Having just drawn 1-1 with Sevilla, Mallorca is playing pragmatically under Jagoba Arrasate with a solid defense thanks to Antonio Raillo, but the attack depends on Vedat Muriqi (6 goals) and lacks ideas when pressed high.
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History of Valencia vs Mallorca in the last five matches
The encounters between Valencia vs Mallorca are always tight, but the Bats hold a clear advantage at home. In the last 20 matches since 2011, Valencia won 10, Mallorca won 4, and drew 6, an average of 2.1 goals/match. At Mestalla, Valencia won 7/10 recent matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding only 5.
The most recent match in March 2025 at Son Moix, the two teams drew 0-0 – a familiar scenario when Mallorca shrinks. In the previous meeting at Mestalla (October 2024), Valencia won 2-1 thanks to Javi Guerra’s late goal in the 89th minute. Mallorca shockingly won 1-0 in 2022, but that was an exception when Valencia often exploited the dead ball and the right wing to take down the opponent’s 5-man defense.
Expected lineup and personnel for Valencia vs Mallorca
Valencia is having a headache with long-term injuries to Thierry Correia (knee, out for the rest of the season) and Dimitri Foulquier (thigh muscle). José Gayà (calf) and Cristhian Mosquera (ankle) need to be checked closely, forcing Baraja to use a 4-4-2 formation: Giorgi Mamardashvili is sure of the wooden goal, the central defense is Diakhaby – Tarkowski – Gasiorowski.
The midfield Pepelu–Guerra controlled the rhythm, the wings López–Fran Pérez rose high, and the duo Duro–Rioja advanced the ball. Duro will carry the attack, but the lack of Gayà makes the left wing vulnerable to Muriqi exploiting high balls.
Mallorca went smoother, missing only Omar Mascarell (suspended) and Siebe Van der Heyden (muscle). Arrasate uses the familiar 5-3-2 diagram: Predrag Rajkovic defends the goal, central defense Raillo – Valjent – Copete – Maffeo – Mojica.
The midfield, Samu Costa – Dani Rodríguez, carried the load, and the duo Muriqi – Larin took the ball forward. Muriqi is most dangerous from the dead point, but the lack of Mascarell makes the midfield weak, easily broken by Pepelu–Guerra.
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Analysis of the main and secondary odds of Valencia vs Mallorca
The football betting market is listing the odds for the Valencia vs Mallorca match on December 19, 2025, as follows:
- Asian Handicap: Valencia -0.5 @ 1.95 | Mallorca +0.5 @ 1.95
- Over/under odds: 2.25 balls – Over @ 1.98 | Under @ 1.92
- European handicap: Valencia wins 1.95 | Draw 3.40 | Mallorca won 4.20
Asian handicap analysis: Choosing Valencia -0.5 is reasonable. The Bats won 5/7 recent home matches, while Mallorca lost 4/6 away matches. With Duro and López, Valencia often leads in the first half (3/5 close matches), and a 1-goal difference is enough to win against Mallorca’s strong defense but slow counterattack.
Over/Under commentary: Under 2.25 is shining with high odds. 8/10 Valencia home matches ended with less than 2.5 goals, scoring an average of 1.2 goals. Mallorca has 6/8 away matches under the mark, and a history of confrontation 7/9 matches under the mark. Predict a 1-0 or 2-0 scenario, difficult to overcome because both prioritize defense.
Corner handicap: Valencia handicaps 4.5 corners for the whole match – choose Valencia @ 1.90. They average 5.8 corners/home match, forcing Mallorca to only create 4.1 away corners.
Predict the score of the match on December 20 between Valencia vs Mallorca.
Full score prediction for Valencia vs Mallorca: 1-0.
- Hugo Duro scores (odds 2.20)
- Valencia won the first half (odds 2.10)
- Both teams did not score (odds 1.85)
Conclusion
With a strong Mestalla home field advantage, clear relegation motivation, and a stronger defense than Mallorca’s away trips, Valencia vs Mallorca is unlikely to be a big surprise. According to BettingOnlineNow, Mallorca still possesses Muriqi, who is dangerous in high-ball situations but often lacks ideas when pressed high.
Bettors can prioritize Valencia -0.5 for the whole match, combining Under 2.25 and the scenario of Duro scoring to increase the odds of winning. Mestalla night promises to be where Valencia regains fans’ trust, while Mallorca continues its safe journey in the middle of the rankings.